For the Love of the Game (Market Commentary) |
Against popular opinion, and against my own rules (I’m not checking the CryptoSlam 500 NFT Index), I’m
calling it: NFTs are back. Now, before you raise an eyebrow, I’m not saying this because NFT sales are blowing up (they’re not), or because prices are skyrocketing (they aren’t). In fact, we’re facing serious headwinds—most notably, the SEC issuing a Wells notice to OpenSea for selling NFTs they consider securities. Despite this, my instincts are telling me we’re back. Why?
In the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen some unexpected mints take off and find big-time success. Blinks
GG minted at 0.22 $SOL and is now at 5.56 $SOL, Pnuks minted at 0.005 $ETH and soared as high as 0.026 $ETH, FSIC minted at 0.0048 $BTC and hit 0.0095 $BTC this weekend, and then, out of nowhere, the iconic CryptoKitties dropped their first new NFT
collection in years. Their stealth mint, Egg, launched at 0.008 $ETH and rocketed to 0.31 $ETH once traders caught on. These aren’t hyped-up collections—they’re fresh, under-the-radar projects that are performing incredibly well on the secondary market.
That’s four hot new collections, and honestly, there are probably five more I could mention (keep reading to see who). You’re not going to see the start of a comeback in global sales volume, and you might not notice it in the top collections’ floor prices, but if you keep your ear to the ground, you’ll see it in new mints. That’s exactly what’s happening now. Weekly NFT sales dropped to $80.25M last week, down -14.76% from the prior week, while sellers also fell 11.37%. But buyers were up 3.91%, and trade profits increased 64.43% to -$4.88M. The week’s numbers aren’t going to blow your hair back, but there’s a feeling that the winds are changing.
Back to the SEC, who would love nothing more than to cripple NFTs, it feels like they’re about to make their biggest push against NFTs yet. OpenSea announced they’ve received a Wells notice from the SEC and the notice indicates that OpenSea has been selling NFTs they claim are securities. The community is now debating what NFTs are in the SEC’s crosshairs. Is it art and collectibles, or is it token-yielding NFTs? OpenSea plans to fight any changes brought by the SEC and is pledging $5M for creators who are also charged. On the horizon I’m expecting more Wells notices to be revealed, and more projects getting charged. The silver lining is that means we’ll probably see lots of new precedents set as cases head to trials. That means some pretty good guidelines for NFTs to thrive going forward, and ultimately a great foundation to continue
building on. - CryptoPunks are the top NFT collection again this week, with over $3.22M in sales volume. The top sale in the collection came in at 101 ETH ($255K for Punk #4653), and the average sale price on the week was $90,957.91. CryptoPunks are the king of NFTs again with over $7.3M in sales over the past 7 days. We may be seeing holders’ conviction at play here because even with transactions up 41%, unique buyers fell -37%.
- Bored Ape Yacht Club sales fell 17.26% this week as volume fell across most NFT collections. Bored Ape #7398 was the top sale in the collection this week, selling for 130 ETH ($325K), and the average sale price in the collection was $48,814.84.
- Mad Lads had the best performance of any top-ten collection this week, with sales increasing 241.24% to $1.63M. Lots of new eyes were on the collection after they created a profile picture for
internet star Haliey Welch (the Hawk Tuah girl), which she actually now uses for her picture on X. The collection’s top sale this week was Mad Lads #6201 which sold for 127 SOL ($17K), and the collection’s average sale price was $8,450.66.
- NodeMonkes remains one of Bitcoin’s hottest collections, and this week saw another $1.4M in sales. NodeMonkes #6684 was the top sale, coming in at .3366 BTC ($20K), and the collection’s average sale price was $8,735.34.
- Ethereum saw $29.76M in NFT sales this past week, more than both Solana and Bitcoin combined. Buyers
increased by 14.50% thanks to some spicy new mints like Egg.
- Bitcoin’s $12.4M in sales was down 6.97% from the prior week, the smallest loss of the top ten blockchains. Buyers are up 23.47% on the week, and new collections like FSIC have
collectors focused on BTC scaling solutions.
- The iconic CryptoKitties team dropped a surprise collection over the holiday weekend, with an open edition collection of Eggs. Unfortunately for most
traders, they were away from the action and completely missed the mint. These eggs minted for just .008 ETH ($20), and have reached as high as .33 ETH ($800). We’re waiting for more details about the collection, but it sounds like it’s the start of the Flow blockchain’s EVM compatibility.
- FSIC was the hottest new mint on Bitcoin last week. These inscriptions give collectors their own cut of mined $FB tokens, the native token of the Fractal Bitcoin ecosystem. FSIC minted for
.0048 BTC and saw a 2x to .0095 BTC.
- Yuga Labs announced a new team under their umbrella called The Workshop, where 13 of their best devs will be working to build out dapps
for ApeChain. Their CEO Greg Solano said that they aim to turn around exciting new applications in 8 - 12 week cycles, so it sounds like we’ll begin seeing some of their products soon.
- Zynga has left Web3. On Friday, the SugarTown game announced that they have been acquired by D20 Labs, which is made up of the same team who was working on the game with Zynga. As you might expect, the community was not pleased with the news, and the collections floor price fell around 17% to .14 ETH.
The CryptoSlam 500 NFT Index fell -2.28% in the past 7d while crypto trades sideways and NFT traders focus on new mints. That’s right, it’s not that traders are entirely away from NFTs (even though many are at Korea Blockchain Week this week),
but instead they’re focused on new NFT collections.
The NFT index measures the top 500 collections that are over 6 months old, so if traders are selling their top-tier collections to fund new mints, you’ll actually see the index go down. I’m keeping my eye on those top 500 collections for a sign that collectors spot a bargain at current prices. Right now, traders are finding better opportunities elsewhere.
Be smart and keep your finger on the pulse of this market, by keeping your eyes on CryptoSlam and the indexes. You can stay plugged in by fixing your vision on our new daily Web3 live show called Chain Reactor.
Have a MEGA
GM! — Yehudah Petscher |
One of the most important features of NFTs is their utility of preserving a full record of a digital item. I’m talking about its birth on the blockchain, its transaction history, who created it, who held it, and how long it was held each step of
the way. This provenance matters much more than people realize, especially in the upcoming age of AI, deep fakes, misinfo, and scams. Dive in to learn more about what type of provenance NFTs preserve, and level up your understanding of why blockchain tech is so game-changing. Happy
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