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For the Love of the Game (Market Commentary) |
Did you forget about the memecoin supercycle or the NFT
supercycle? I sure hope not, because this presidential cycle is about to throw us in the deep end of both. The war over crypto and NFT regulations has seen escalations recently, with Robinhood and Uniswap becoming two of the latest platforms to receive a Wells notice from the SEC. But last week was a
defining moment for 2024 and for all of Web3 when Donald Trump made his position on crypto more clear than ever, he wants builders to build here in the USA and for the hostility against crypto to end.
This isn’t a shocking revelation from someone who has 5 NFT collections across 2 blockchains (Trump Collectible Cards Series 1 and 2, the Mugshot Edition Collection, Trump Prizes, and the recently
inscribed Mugshot Edition ordinals). But the surprising part is that Web3 has grown so fast over the past few years, that we are at a point where a presidential candidate’s stance on crypto could win or lose them an election. Recent reports show that 15% of the US population now owns crypto, which is a staggering
45 million Americans. The last election was decided by 8 million votes, and since 2020 crypto has become a nearly daily mainstream news topic.
This isn’t an endorsement for any candidate, but instead just a blunt fact. One of the primary candidates is now officially pro crypto while the other’s administration is clearly not. Keep in mind that Trump says crypto should be allowed in a “safe” way, meaning strongly regulated. I have a hunch that the
regulations he has in mind might not be fantastic for crypto.
Still, as we gear up towards the November election I’m expecting crypto to enter its most volatile period we have ever witnessed before. That means wild price swings, new ATHs, massive dumps, and the SEC throwing all of their weight against crypto businesses in potentially one last-ditch effort to kill it. At this point, we know that NFTs benefit from crypto bull markets, so you may want to fasten your seatbelt for what seems
destined to come to the NFT markets later this year. For right now, the NFT market isn’t having any type of positive reaction to Trump’s stance on crypto, but there is hype building in Web3. Most of that renewed energy has been focused on memecoins and stocks, while the NFT market has fallen to a fresh new 2024 low. In fact, last week was the lowest week for NFT sales in 27 weeks.
There were a few bright spots though with sellers, buyers, transactions, and even trade profits finding some positive movement. And keep in mind, a lot of the losses we see on trades are still likely from traders getting liquid to trade outside of NFTs. The vibes are returning, and so is a hero of 2021’s bull run named Roaring Kitty. This is the man who sparked the historic $GME stock run, and he has finally returned to social media after a 3-year absence.
I’ve said in the past and it seems to be playing out now, 2021 just may be repeating itself again this year. This is the time to pay attention to the market and be ready for whatever comes next. After this election, Web3 will never be the same
again.
- The general Ordinals ecosystem is having a tremendously down period, and the slowdown in sales continued this week.
Sales were down a whopping 29.53%, and without a quick turnaround, is on pace to be beaten by the up-and-coming Fantasy Top game on Blast.
- DMarket continues to show that having a great core product can keep you thriving in any market condition. Their Counterstrike, DOTA2 Rust, and other gaming skins saw a small
decline in sales this week (-4.52%), but sales still came in at a solid $5.8M
- CryptoPunks saw sales increase 43.62% to $5.5M and even recorded the best single day of sales on the 7th as 14 CryptoPunks were sold. This was the most Punk sales in a
day since 15 sales on Feb 8.
- Guild of Guardians is gearing up for their first ever $1M game tournament, which has traders buying up gaming assets in a frenzy. Sales rocketed up
39.86% in the past 7d to $3.4M.
- DeGods and Bored Apes are both down over 50% in the past week, with sales in each collection coming in at just $1.9M. There is currently an exodus from ETH (and Solana) collections as traders are starting to sense that Blast has the degen action they seek.
- Bitcoin sales fell another 14.83% this week, but a significantly smaller loss than
last week’s nearly 40% decline. Sales came in at $45.9M as traders are both stuck in Runes and also spending time in other ecosystems.
- Ethereum sales also fell again this week, but like Bitcoin, at a lesser rate than last week’s 29% decline. The same story is playing out on Ethereum as all of
the other major chains, greener pastures lay elsewhere, and traders are willing to sell at a loss to not miss out.
- Solana had the smallest decline out of the major NFT chains this week with sales falling just 5.84%. The bad news is that Solana saw an -83.24% decline in buyers,
beating out every other top 10 blockchain.
- Polygon saw the biggest increase in sales out of the top ten blockchains, with sales climbing 20.97% to $10M.
- Pudgy Penguins loaded us up with big news this week ranging from their CEO Luca Netz announcing that over 1 million Pudgy Penguins toys have been sold, to their big announcement that Target and Gamestop would also now be selling those sweet Pudgies. However, great news does not translate to big sales these days, and the Pudgy Penguins collection found their sales down 39.40% to $1.3M.
- Imaginary Ones were hot this week thanks to their new $BUBBLE token drop today, and a teased partnership with Transformers. Sales are up 374% on the week with over
$864K in sales.
- PixelVault’s Wolf Game announced their move from Xai (on Arbitrum) to the new Blast blockchain. NFT sales ramped
up 1,791% on the exciting news, coming in at $124K in the past 7d. But, insider trading reared its ugly head again in their fungible token.
The Forkast 500 NFT Index reflects another week of big losses for the NFT market, this week showing a -4.67% decline. Bitcoin is down 3.4% in the past 7d and NFT floor prices have, for the most part, followed suit. With major volatility expected
in crypto, the NFT market should also brace for wild price action both from crypto swings, and NFT traders' hunt for liquidity. Be smart and keep your finger on the pulse of this market, by keeping your eyes on CryptoSlam and the indexes. You can stay plugged in by fixing your vision on our new daily Web3 live
show called Chain Reactor.
Have a MEGA GM! — Yehudah Petscher
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On the blockchain, consensus describes a state of agreement between nodes on a network. This is paramount for transactions to occur and a key feature of blockchain tech. With nodes in agreement, transactions can then be processed, and then the cycle continues on. This is an important component and security feature for
blockchains, so make sure to learn all about why nodes being in consensus is so important for platforms in Web3 to function.
Happy researching!
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