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For the Love of the Game (Market Commentary) |
It’s a common saying in crypto, at least this year, to
sell your bags in May and walk away until later in the summer. The funny thing is, this actually does mirror how the NFT markets have played out over the past few years.
We’re beginning to see a historical trend play out that we have experienced in each of the past 3 years, which is a significant slowdown in NFT sales around May. Typically the market picks back up before the end of the year, so if you’re walking away, make sure to set a calendar
reminder for mid-summer. In 2021 we fell off a sharp cliff after the first week of May and didn’t resume our mission to the moon until sometime in mid to late June. (Screenshots below from https://www.cryptoslam.io/nftglobal)
In 2022 it was the same story in May, though we didn’t pick up steam again until early 2023.
And in 2023 we saw NFT sales fall yet again in May, though we only had to wait about 6 weeks for a short-lived rebound.
Now in 2024, judging by last week’s sales, it might actually make some sense to walk away in May.
Last week NFT sales came in as the lowest in 2024 with $152M across blockchains. It wasn’t just the lowest sales this year, but also the lowest in 26 weeks. You’re not going to find any bright spots elsewhere in the market, as across the board
we were down in every meaningful metric. Unique sellers, buyers, TXNs, sales prices, and yet again trade profits all fell double digits.
Chalk it up to turmoil in crypto, or those hard-to-resist fungible tokens on Solana, Base, Blast, and now Bitcoin, or just traders still not having much conviction to buy. Clearly, something has changed in the past few weeks the same way it has
this time of the year since 2021. I’m full of hopium though, because I see a lot of positive action around Web3 that can explain these numbers. Trade profits, while in the negative and clearly reflecting traders' losses, can mean traders are taking losses because opportunities are so great in other sectors in
Web3. FriendTechV2 on Base, Fantasy Top on Blast, and Solana memecoins in particular are just about the hottest products in crypto right now, and right now it feels like everyone is rushing to those ecosystems.
We said in the past that traders go where the liquidity lives, and right now that’s over on Blast. As traders find profits over there, the next opportunities for wins will be in other ecosystems that have largely been down (I’m looking at your
ETH and SOL NFTs).
To these brave Blast explorers, I salute your bravery and your newfound bags. Because what goes around comes around, and before long the cycle will shift again right back to NFTs. We’ll be waiting and we’re not walking away.
- The general Ordinals collection saw a -39.97% decline in sales as traders are favoring other blockchain collectibles
like Blast’s cooking ecosystem of dApps to farm.
- Nodemonkes are bucking the broader market trend and are in the midst of a 23.22% increase in sales. Traders were holding out hope that the potential “CryptoPunks” of
Bitcoin would fall in price, but when they held strong through the Merlin unlock, collectors fomo’d right in.
- DeGods saw 2 collections in the Top Ten this week as the assets can now be bridged to Solana. Prices are climbing, and sentiment is high, as the projected who was born on Solana returns home to welcoming arms.
- Watching the Bored Ape Yacht Club is like watching a soap opera. Drama, engagement farming, shifting goals, and now
some tangible direction after their Otherside Town Hall has actually brought the OG collection back to life with a nearly 16 $ETH floor price despite sales falling -47.86%
- Solana Monkey Business and Mad Lads both give Solana its representatives in the Top Ten with $2.8M and $2.4M in sales respectively. Both are benefitting from bonus diamond rewards on Magic Eden, which is clearly a bonus trader's value.
- Bitcoin is your top blockchain in the past week with $53.8M in sales, but unique
buyers are increasing at the slowest pace out of the other top 5 chains, with just an 11.47% growth from last week.
- Ethereum is nipping at Bitcoin’s heels and there’s a sense that Ethereum NFTs just might be on their way back to the top. In the past 7d Ethereum saw $46.8M in
sales while buyers increased 13.65%.
- Solana’s sales fell -9.66% this week, as traders are once again shifting to memecoins. Its 37.43% increase in buyers may be a sign that traders are sensing an
opportunity here once again, and clearly, DeGods return home has something to do with that.
- Beeple reached a milestone in his now historic art career, hitting 17 years of creating one piece of digital
art every day. He also hosted the first-ever Digital Art DeathMatch at his studio in Charleston SC where digital artists went head to head until there was 1 final person standing.
- Y00ts, like DeGods, are now moving back to Solana (if holders choose), and it’s pretty clear, people love the move. Y00ts saw over $1.9M in sales in the past 7d as the
always-on-the-go collections returned home.
- Azuki Elementals and the main Azuki collections got a huge boost in sales (Elementals + 47.61% and Azuki +84.25%) after the first Azuki Enter the Garden anime launched last week.
- Pixelmon unveiled a pre-alpha version of their game now called Warriors of Nova Thera, and the reception to the first hands-on play tests was overwhelmingly positive.
The excitement around the project drove a 208% increase in buyers in the Pixelmon collection, and sales up 233.02% to $857K.
The Forkast 500 NFT Index reflects that the NFT market has lost -3.46% of its value in the past 7d after crypto took a beating late last week. Since then, crypto prices have rebounded thanks to Bitcoin ETF inflows turning positive across the
board, thus bringing the value of NFTs up with it.
The value of the NFT market, while tied to crypto, is also heavily influenced by how NFTs are priced in their native currency, and right now it’s looking like floor prices are on the rise. A rise in floor prices along with a rise in crypto prices will make for a massive green wave on the Forkast Indexes, and this is exactly what I think is coming in the next few weeks. Be smart and keep your finger on the pulse of this market, by keeping your eyes on CryptoSlam and the indexes. You can stay plugged in by fixing your vision on our new daily Web3 live show called Chain Reactor.
Have a MEGA GM! — Yehudah Petscher
Nathan Sawaya - Small Skulls Date - May 7 Blockchain - Ethereum Price - .013 $ETH Yue Minjun - Human Date - May 8 Blockchain - Bitcoin Price - .027 $BTC Planet
Atmos - MKIV Exo: Genesis Ed Date - May 9 Blockchain - Ethereum Price .08 $ETH Star Wars - A New Hope Collection Date - May 12 Blockchain - Immutable Price - $50 USD |
A term mostly specific to social media describes posts whose main purpose is to get a reaction from the public. The reaction these types of posts are looking for, positive or negative, doesn’t matter. All that matters is getting a rise out of as many people as possible in an attempt to garner attention. In the case of
new platforms like Fantasy Top, engagement farming is encouraged by X influencers as a way to farm actual token rewards. Pretty interesting, right?
There are plenty more reasons to engagement farm, so dive in to find out why it’s such a common technique and sometimes a problem across social media platforms.
Happy researching!
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