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For the Love of the Game (Market Commentary) |
NFTs are getting set for world domination. I’m half kidding, but the other half of me is really
starting to feel that way. While NFTs are heating up on the blockchain once again, their exposure to the physical world is what has me so excited about where we’re at on the NFT roadmap. Art Basel was the talk of the town in Miami this past weekend, with artists, collectors, and NFT projects congregating around
the latest can’t-miss Web3 community events. Out of this gathering came big, potentially game-changing news from the Pudgy Penguins and Rug Radio that will help expose NFTs to millions outside of our bubble.
The Pudgy Penguins announced that their upcoming Pudgy World game will launch in Q1 2024, and will serve as a platform to onboard millions of non-NFT people into Web3. Given their CEO Luca Netz’s track record, and their toys living on shelves at Walmart, Macy's, Amazon, and Smyths, is there any reason to doubt
them?
We also learned of the merger of 2 media entities, Web3s Rug Radio, and Decrypt News. Together they’ll bring fresh eyes to the NFT space, so like the Pudgy Penguins, it was a big announcement that faces a non-NFT audience.
As big as these announcements were, the
market itself outshined all. Crypto-liquid traders helped NFTs set a few milestones in the past 7 days, including both Solana and Bitcoin daily sales volume flipping to Ethereum over the weekend, global weekly NFT sales volume hitting a 41-week high, transactions hitting a 15-week high, trade profits hitting an 83 week high, and the NFT market crossing $1.1b in sales in the past 30 days.
Last week was actually the 2nd best week of the year for NFT sales and was less than $20m shy of being the best-performing week for NFTs since May 23 - 29 2022. You probably knew the market had rebounded, but did you realize it was looking that
good?
All indicators are that we’ll have an even better month than November. Right now, less than halfway through the month, December NFT sales are sitting at $520.4m. That’s over half of last month’s $918.5m in sales already, and we still have 19 days to go. Trade profits, though, are what have me convinced this run will continue. Currently in December sellers are in profit by over $19.1m (a 20-month high) so I came up with a precise, scientific formula to show why this makes an “up” December likely. Ready for it?
Traders + Profits = FOMO. If sellers are winning trades, they’re likely to continue trading. Combine that with liquidity that keeps coming into traders' hands (I’m looking at you, $Portal), we just might have the heat to melt the NFT winter away for good. To me, it feels like the NFT market is about to explode.
Last week was another eclectic week of NFT offerings on the charts, with 6 blockchains represented in the Top Ten NFT Collections.
- $SATS BRC-20 and the Ordinals collections helped power Bitcoin to the top of the 7-day blockchain rankings this week, and the Ordinals collection saw an all-time high sale when Inscription #8 sold for 10.6 BTC ($459,012.34).
- Sentry Node Licence on Arbitrum turned heads when the Xai gaming ecosystem offered nodes for sale. The collection saw over $11.3m in sales in 24 hours, and on Dec 7 was the #1
collection on the blockchain rankings.
- Tensorians and Mad
Lads have Solana competing with Ethereum almost on a daily basis now and helped Solana flip Ethereum on the blockchain rankings on 12/8 -12/9.
- Gas Hero Badge continues to be Polygon’s top NFT collection, last week trading for over $8.6m, a 610% increase from the prior week.
- Pudgy Penguins are Ethereum’s top NFT collection in the past week with over $7m in sales. The team’s Art Basel party’s announcement of a Pudgy World game coming next year pushed the
collection up to an all-time high price of over 12 ETH on Saturday.
- MATR1X KUKU is a new gaming ecosystem on Ethereum and in just 24 hours has already entered the Top Ten Collections for the week with over $6.2m in sales.
- Bitcoin became the top-ranked blockchain this week, and even more shocking, they’re now at #1 in the past
30 days with over $471m in sales.
- Ethereum clearly has competition unlike anything traders ever expected, with Bitcoin and Solana both drawing once ETH-only traders. But it still has the #2 ranking locked down, even
with it being the only top 5 blockchain to see a decrease in sales volume this week.
- Solana shocked everyone last week when it flipped Ethereum on the 24h rankings on Friday and Saturday. Saturday’s $15.05m in sales was the highest Solana has seen this year if we don’t
count refunded sales from June 30 (which had $29m in sales), and could be considered the highest since $19.9m on May 24, 2022.
- Arbitrum is quickly becoming a top blockchain with projects like Sentry Node Licences just being the tip of the iceberg. Rug Radio, PixelVault, and Forgotten Runes are just some of the
big Web3 names that are now building in the Arbitrum ecosystem.
- Polygon continues to see a massive spike in NFT sales, driven largely by their Gas Hero Badge and Coupon collections. Combined they sold over $10.9m on secondary and make up over 70% of Polygon’s weekly sales. Fifa is now bringing their newest NFTs to Polygon
instead of Algorand, where they previously minted nearly 1 million NFTs.
- Bitcoin had a truly noteworthy week last week, starting with the first Ordinals collection, Bitcoin Shrooms, becoming the first Bitcoin collectibles to be auctioned at Sotheby’s. This sale kicked traders into FOMO and led to a sale of Inscription #8, a psychedelic badger NFT that sold for 10.6 BTC ($459,012.34).
- XCopy announced a burn for his Max Pain NFT collection, allowing holders to burn their NFT for a new 500 ed NFT called OBLIVION. This drove over $367k in sales in the Max Pain collection yesterday and average sale prices up nearly 2x to $1071.
- Mocaverse announced a raise of $11.88m last week, and now hype around a new token for the ecosystem has driven the collection to an average sale price of over $6,542 this month, up from $3,822 in November.
- Pixelmon’s CEO confirmed that they will have a token. Details will be announced when they’re ready, but they plan to reward their community above all. NFT sales climbed 48% in the past 7 days to $2.4m, and average sale prices have doubled this month to $4,340 compared to $2,128 in November.
- Gods Unchained was delisted from the Epic Game Store after earning an MA rating from the ESRB for the play-to-earn aspect of their game. Even with the news, sales are on fire this
week, with $6.3m in sales in the past 7 days.
- Jack Butcher launched a new collection called Oviators on the Base blockchain. Collectors can burn their NFT for a physical pair of Oviators sunglasses and will receive a generative art NFT in place
of their burned NFT. He also announced set 27 of the Opepen series, which saw multiple NFT artists hand-drawn art for the editions in this set.
- Lil Pudgys, the 2nd tier collection of the Pudgy Penguins ecosystem, saw 2.4m in sales last week, behind the news of a Pudgy World game dropping next year. Some traders sold grails like Fidenzas and Autoglyphs to sweep Pudgy Penguin and Lil Pudgy floors.
The Forkast 500 NFT Index is above 2,600 now, up from 2,389 last week. This reflects that the NFT market has erased all of its losses since July 29. NFTs just keep gaining value, as collectors are flush with crypto, and hungry to collect. We’re beginning to see new mints arrive in the ecosystem, and so far a majority of them have been profitable. If these ramp up, I’m watching to see if collectors finally start selling their prized NFTs in an effort to not miss hot drops. But if traders remain liquid through airdrop farming, rewards, and crypto’s continued positive performance, they may not have any need to
sell. My guess? The NFT Forkast remains hot. MEGA GMs!
- Ethereum contracts made by Thirdweb have a security vulnerability, and multiple NFT collections will need to be migrated to a new
contract.
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Farming is a term most are familiar with, and in crypto, it means nearly the same as it does in the real world. Simply put, it’s a specific set of actions that in theory lead to a reward. In crypto right now, multiple platforms are offering token rewards for simple actions like tweeting or using their platform. There
are many ways and reasons to farm, and right now on the blockchain, it’s farming season. Do yourself a favor and look into why people farm. You’ll quickly find why traders engage with it so heavily.
Happy
researching!
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