For the Love of the Game (Market Commentary) |
The thrill of an NFT bull market, almost nothing compares. I’ve been lucky to
experience runs of different sizes that span from 2021 to today, with each having its own causes and characteristics. Though each run is unique, they have something in common that has to be shared. It’s the way they end. 2021’s NFT scene was ignited like an exploding powder keg, as the world couldn’t help but take notice of early NFT projects that
have since become the foundation of blockchain collectibles. Sorare, Art Blocks, Axie Infinity, CryptoPunks, and NBA Top Shot showed the world what could be done with digital ownership by offering tokenized collectibles as NFTs. At the same time, Web3 was birthing new IP through NFTs, when brands
like Doodles, VeeFriends, Pudgy Penguins, World of Women, and Bored Ape Yacht Club took their first steps towards becoming NFT royalty. CryptoSlam All-time top Collection Rankings –
Source For months on end, traders couldn’t collect enough NFTs, until the top of the market was ultimately found. That top was Yuga Labs’ mint of the Mutant Ape Yacht Club NFTs on
8/28/21. Global NFT Sales Volume - Jan ‘21 - Dec ‘21 – Source In the month of August alone, the Mutant Ape Yacht Club traded over $277m on secondary markets. Mutant Ape Yacht Club historical sales – Source Following the Mutant Ape mint, the NFT markets remained active, but uneventful for months. That changed in
December 2021 when NFT traders received an airdrop of tokens called $SOS. (This was an unannounced reward for traders similar to Blur.io’s $BLUR token drops, which infused millions of dollars into traders' hands). The $SOS stimulus fueled the next NFT
run in January 2022 that once again caused projects to mint out in an instant and the next day command multiple ETH floors. While the 2022 markets saw record sales that dwarfed anything in 2021, it all came to an end much sooner, with the market peaking on 5/1/22. Global NFT Sales Volume - Jan ‘22 - Dec ‘22
– Source The top was once again a Yuga Labs NFT, this one called Otherdeeds. In total, Otherdeed NFTs saw close to $1b in secondary volume in May 2022. Otherdeed NFT historical sales – Source (MEGA Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a trader, I am simply an enjoyer. The NFT
space is wildly volatile, and with project announcements from NFTNYC on the horizon, I expect more trading action this year.) On Wednesday, Yuga Labs had their third new mint of 2023, which once again saw traders rushing to secondary to collect their latest NFTs. Yuga’s new Heavy Metal NFTs have already traded $7m on secondary in just over 24
hours. Together with Yuga’s January
mint of Sewer Pass, which has traded over $109m, and their TwelveFold mint on Bitcoin for $16.5m, we’ve now had over $125m trading hands, which I suspect is leaving traders low on liquidity. There’s likely to be another major NFT drop coming this year from Yuga, and if so, I expect it to be the final liquidity-sucking event of the year. They say once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, and the 3rd time is a pattern. My
bet? This year Yuga Labs’ pattern becomes cemented as rule, where their biggest mints are the period at the end of the statement: “this run is over.” MEGA GMs! Head to the Panini NFT
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A phrase used commonly in crypto and NFTs (and one I used to pretend I understood), is actually a very simple concept. When the market is running, traders look for events that feel like they are the peak of the run, which then is their
signal to focus on selling their assets before the market comes to a standstill. Major events like Yuga Labs’ mints are often “the top”, so as you begin your research, and gain experience trading, you’ll soon be able to identify a “Top Signal” while it’s happening. Happy Researching! Received this from a friend? Sign up for this twice-a-week CryptoSlam VIP newsletter. |
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