For the Love of the Game (Market Commentary) |
NFTs feel bad right now. Volume is down, and prices are tumbling, including pillars of the markets, BAYC and CryptoPunks.
The year
started like a rocket, giving those planning for a trip to the moon some hope that the latter half of last year was an anomaly instead of what it truly was; the start of many projects heading to zero. Gone are the days of NFTs minting, and instantly commanding a multiple ETH floor. That wasn’t a sign that we were early on investments that lead to generational wealth. No, that was a bubble, and that bubble has definitely burst. If you’ve been watching the Forkast 500
NFT Index, the continued downtrend isn’t a surprise. Let’s take a look at the past 24 hours in the NFT market and zoom out from there to see just how significantly the market has deflated. In the past 24 hours, the NFT market is down around .75%. Not so bad, right?
Now let’s look at the
past 7 days. We’re down over 7%. At 30 days we’re even lower, down over 8%. Any guesses about 60 days? It’s hard to look at, but here you have it. We’re down over 17%. YTD we’re down 9%, but
if we look at the peak of 2023 on January 18th through today, we can see that the NFT market is down a staggering 26%. This year’s gains have been completely erased. Zooming out to when
the masses first came into NFTs and inflated the bubble, is pretty enlightening. Since the Forkast 500 Index began tracking the market on Jan 1 2022, the Forkast 500 is down over 88%. That means if you had invested
$1,000 into the top 500 NFT projects across blockchains, you’d now have about $220 worth of NFTs today. I’m guessing this is what your NFT wallet feels like right now. It’s possible that the
NFT market has found its bottom, but keep in mind that thousands of projects minted out, and made enough funds to keep their project running for some time. They may be able to keep afloat longer, but without innovation to bring in new collectors, and with projects’ income from royalties evaporating, it’s looking like the runway they built for themselves is running out of road. An entire culture has
been born around collecting NFTs, and that’s never going away. But given how much activity there had been in the NFT space earlier this year and the fact that we’re just now beginning to enter another slowdown, this feels like NFTs still have a long way to fall. The question is “how low can we go?”. In
the next week we’ll shine a light on just how big of a problem wash trades have become, and how the space has largely been propped up by them. The data may shock you. Until then, have a MEGA GM!
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Sometimes we forget how much the digital space is growing, and how terms that are common knowledge here, may not be for newcomers. “Meme” is one of those terms.
A meme is an image, video, gif, or even just a phrase that becomes popular and widely shared
online. Memes are typically funny, but have an underlying message or point, and like using an emote on your text, sending a meme in place of words can sometimes tell a story with an image that would take many words to tell. Some may argue that the NFT space and much of crypto is powered by memes, so take some time to research the history of memes. Who knows, maybe you’ll be a master meme-creator before long!
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